It was quite a run for commodity markets during the month of April with high prices comparable to the drought year of 2012. Those highs were hit in August, so to have this run in April was certainly noteworthy.

The moves actually began on March 30, the day before USDA’s prospective plantings report. On that day, July corn opened at $7.08 per bushel, while December corn opened at $6.52 per bushel. Near the end of April, July corn reached a high of $8.24, while December got to $7.57.

Soybeans took a little bit of a different route considering their plantings expectations were much higher than expected. July soybeans lost more than 75 cents in just two sessions, March 31 and April 1. November lost 63 cents. Over the next three weeks, July soybeans gained $1.67, while November gained $1.34.

Things have been a little different this week. Corn has been spinning its wheels, while soybeans were sharply lower Monday and have come back a little bit since. Monday’s slow planting pace news didn’t give much of a jolt to the markets. Although this week has been mostly cool and damp, the extended forecast tells a different story. Parts of Illinois could have temperatures in the 80s for at least five consecutive days.

For those farmers who have still been waiting for a window of opportunity, the green flag is about to drop.

“The market’s looking at the forecast. Basically from Nebraska to Ohio, the weather looks sunny and low- to mid-80s for the entire week,” said Ben Kasch of Bower Trading. “And the weekend after Mother’s Day looks pretty good, too. And that’s what the market is telling us, we’re going to make some progress in the heart of the Midwest on some these high-yield acres. There’s plenty of bullish news here, especially for corn, but the weather forecast is trumping that.”

Kasch sees $8.20 as a resistance level for July corn, saying another catalyst will need to push the market higher than that. These days the catalyst does not have to be weather, given the geopolitical factors that are at play. He adds that $7.55 will be a measuring stick for corn.

“You have to remain flexible, if you have inputs bought and put down, I think you do need to be pricing some here,” he said. “Not to get overdone, but you’ve got to protect these price levels. There’s still a lot of potential downside these markets, and I’m not talking just grains, but the whole complex in general. We’ve got a lot of premium built in because of the war. Where it’s pricing at your elevator, on the board, using options, I think you’ve got to be flexible there but getting something covered here, especially with the forecast opening up.”

Kasch says soybeans appear to have more staying power than corn at this point. “You do have quite a bit of risk given the long position from the funds in the corn market, so we’ve got to be careful there. But I still think the global end-user will be a willing corn buyer on dips, and China has shown to do that. But if we’re talking about staying power, I see soybeans in a coiling sideways pattern here.”